Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Greek default domino effect?
The orthodox answer is that a Greek default would raise credit spreads as credit risk is repriced in light of a pretty big default. That, of course, would be bad for private company bonds. This is what happened in '98 in the Russian default. I doubt it this time though. The Greek default is pretty much old news and CDS have already priced it as a near certainty in the next few years. Anybody holding this debt has the opportunity to spread out the pain by buying CDS and the people selling CDS are intentionally taking on big risk. My bet is that a Greek default is met by the global bond market with a big shrug and a "well we knew that was coming down the pike".
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